Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Analysing the polls.

Subject: Margin of error, undecided voters and independent voters.

On a 4 -5% margin of error there is a huge potential for unpredictable results in my calculation.

I believe that the New Hampshire polls were not spot on as some have concluded, because of the final vote showing that a lot out-of-Staters were allowed to come over and say, "Yea we're thinking about moving here" and then promptly were allowed to vote.

The pollsters would not have asked voters other than NH residents.

So that makes the polls off in the first place, because they didn't include the out-of-Staters, which is what helped determine the final vote tally.

Also, because of McCain's name recognition, a lot of independents switched their vote to McCain, when they felt that Obama had it in the bag.

So I believe the margin of error really was an important factor in calculating the outcome.

Which way do the margin of errors work?
I believe it's in the trend just prior to election day, not just the primaries' trend, but also the national trend, including candidates surge from debates, etc.

So here goes my prediction for this primary using the above process:
Romney has been gaining the last few days, so expect him to end up higher than the polls showed.

Expect McCain to get much less than he expected.

Expect Fred to surge higher than he expected.

Rudy will flatline.

Huckabee will be disappointed with his final tally (but he will spin like a top and blame it on the snow flurries).


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